Matthew Cain's blog

There are a number of intriguing subplots that are bubbling under as a result of the general election. How these emege and conclude will shape politics over the next few months; at least until the next election.

1. Murdoch, Cameron and public influence
Without a majority it will be harder for Cameron to govern so it follows that resistance to changes which makes business easier for Mr Murdoch will be harder.

At the same time Cameron owes Murdoch even more than he would have done with a working majority: imagine the state he’d be in without the visceral support of the Sun. And if Murdoch goes cold on Cameron it will be even harder for Dave.

But it’s also a story of the declining influence of the Sun – and newspapers more broadly. The Sun did not win it for the Tories – nor did any of the mass market papers. They did not even set the agenda for the day. Twitter’s biggest impact on the campaign was breaking the cycle: newspaper frontpage – Today programme – morning press conference – lunchtime news.

So will someone – or something – else fill the Murdoch void or will politics stay trapped in a vortex of decreasingly fulfilling Murdoch-love?

2. Leaders and their parties
In normal circumstances any one of the party leaders had just cause to resign the day after the night before. Cameron because he didn’t meet his part of the deal he struck with his party (change to win). Clegg because his result was the worst in his party’s history. And Gordon not only because he lost but because the local election results suggest that he was an impediment to greater success. Labour did well locally when distanced from Brown.

Clegg now has to take a party whose membership considers itself to be to the left of Labour into coalition with a Conservative party for whom a litmus test of it’s time in power would be a different relationship with the EU.

3. Parties and their resources
There’s no way Labour or the Lib Dems can afford another election campaign any time soon. And big money failed for the Tories – even if Ashcroft was minded to throw more ‘good’ money after bad.

But no party is likely to have the courage to argue for state funding incentives and donation caps – the only viable solution to the status quo.

Can any of the parties fudamentally rethink the big ticket costs of campaigning? Or will they turn to dubious donors or hardcore suppprt with strings-attached?

4. Devolution
The election result was also a story about the fragmentation of the nation. Labour’s failure in England and the Tories north of Watford – excluding posh bits. The answer to this (and inconclusive national politics) is surely devolution to local authorities but with Labour gaining control across London that’s less attractive to the Tories and with local government facing a spending cut anyway, a tough balance for any government.

5. Party Ideology
David Cameron’s inconclusive result may be insufficient for him to break out from Thatcher’s shackles. And for Labour, Miliband and Balls would both be defined by association with Blair and Brown. The election result appears to suggest that Clegg failed to convince people that the Lib Dem’s version of liberalism was not defined by the traditional left/right axis.

But with party allegiances further weakened – and the prospect of electoral reform – the traditional alliances of British politics are under structural threat, not just the temporary inconvenience of coalition.

Conclusion
The tectonic plates of politics move slowly and often take years before the movement is apparent. But they have moved and are continuing to move. The political groupings which understand this best will prosper most.