Matthew Cain's blog

I’ve been frustrated by analyses of the reds this season which have said that the difference for Liverpool this season compared with last is the loss of Alonso. That’s not because I don’t miss him but because it just seems too obvious an explanation.We put in some pretty insipid performances last year with him, and some inspired ones without him. This weekend’s game against Bolton Wanderers is as good a starting point as any to ask: how are Liverpool different without Alonso?

Using The Guardian’s chalkboard analysis software, I took two games as comparisons, after rejecting many other possibilities. After some initial analysis it was obvious that it wasn’t useful to compare Liverpool’s performances against Aston Villa, Man United or Newcastle last season with any of this year – we were just playing so much better then. However, two performances last term were particularly similar to the Bolton game: the 0-0 draw away to Aston Villa which was the 3rd game of the season and just before the international break; and the 3-2 victory away to Manchester City. As the Liverpool Way blog said: “it was just like the start of last season”.

I chose the Man City game as the comparison because:

• it was played against 10 men for the last 25 minutes (like the Bolton game),
• Liverpool passed the ball a similar amount against Bolton compared with Man City – but far less in that game against Aston Villa
• Gerrard and Torres played against Man City but Gerrard missed the Villa game and Torres limped off in the first half
• the scoreline was the same – in similar circumstances

What I found out was that there was very little difference in the team performances in the two games. The key difference for Liverpool without Alonso was the role that Mascherano plays in the team and, to a lesser extent, the contribution of Jamie Carragher.

What wasn’t different

Steven Gerrard’s performance wasn’t that different in either game (or, as The Guardian showed, compared with the previous game against Aston Villa). Dirk Kuyt didn’t play differently, although he did offer more defensively against Man City, with two tackles in the corner of Liverpool’s right back spot against City. Albert Riera put in a similar performance although he offers a bit more defensively, and now gives the ball away a bit less. The only significant difference in his performance was that he played inside a bit more this weekend – though a fair number of his passes went outside to Insua so this probably explains why he was tucking in a bit more. Fernando Torres wasn’t much different either, though he played a bit deeper against Man City and closed down players a bit higher against Bolton.

What was a bit different

Pepe Reina saw more of the ball against Bolton Wanderers than Man City – but you’d expect that, given the aerial threat of Bolton. Fabio Aurelio played left back against Man City last year but his replacement, Mili Insua got forward more against Bolton. Arbeloa was right fullback against Man City and got forward more than I remembered – but Glen Johnson was more potent as an attacking threat against Bolton.

What was really different

I was amazed to analyse Carragher’s contribution against Bolton so checked it three times to make sure. His passes were similar, his clearances were similar, his interceptions were similar but against Bolton at the weekend, he didn’t make a single tackle. That compares with his 10 tackles against Man City.

It is clear that Lucas Leiva is not a straight swap with Xabi Alonso. He saw the ball 30-odd times against Bolton, whereas Alonso passed it over 70 times against Man City. Moreover, Alonso got around the pitch more than Lucas. Alonso even tackled more than Lucas. But the Reds don’t miss Alonso for quite the reason you’d imagine.

What’s changed is Mascherano (there’s an interesting discussion here about Mascherano is happy at the club). He’s gone from being the person who breaks up play to being the player who keeps the ball moving. He passed the ball 70 times successfully – compared with just 35 against City.

And what’s the impact of that? Tackles. His tackle count has gone down from 69 (39 won) to 3 (1 won). Ok, so it’s Bolton who play differently (the ball will be in his area less) but it’s still a significant difference.

The analysis is undoubtedly flawed – for one, it flattens 90 minutes into a single picture. But it’s not just that Liverpool are missing Alonso. The loss of Alonso is losing an important element of Javier Mascherano too.